E.M.“ Sonny” Stiger和Rocky Intanger
相片by Audrey Todd
悲惨的人‘S Farsite
FARSITE模拟器com是一个复杂的火灾区域puter program designed to simulate fire growth using existing models of fire behavior found in the BEHAVE Fire Behavior Prediction and Fuel Modeling System (Andrews 1986), and in the Canadian Forest Fire Behavior Prediction System (Forestry Canada Fire Danger Group 1992). Many users consider FARSITE to be data-bound and too cumbersome for daily operational use. The authors have used a simple procedure that works.
一个计算机程序的映射技术,地形导航器Pro, used in conjunction with BEHAVE PLUS has provided a relatively accurate and fast wildland fire projection method. Terrain Navigator Pro is a digital topographic map and aerial photography collection system; BEHAVE PLUS is a fire behavior modeling system. Any qualified fire behavior analyst or experienced local firefighter with a strong fire behavior background who has a working knowledge of the BEHAVE program and is familiar with the local fuels, weather, and topography can use the following procedure. The programs are immediately available for use in real time as a support to the fire incident management team from initial attack to a Type One incident. This procedure was tested in 2006 and 2007 on wildland fires in and around Lewis and Clark County, Montana, by E.M. “Sonny” Stiger, fire behavior analyst (FBAN), and Rocky Infanger, chief Wolf Creek/Craig Fire Service Area. The results have been impressive.
Following are three examples of how the method can be used in fire management operations for initial attack, extended attack, and large fire management.
.jpg?x56348)
(1) A photo of the Black Beach fire near Wolf Creek, Montana, on August 21, 2012.
Initial Attack
With the first fire report, note the location either by landmark, address, latitude/longitude, or township and range. Terrain Navigator can locate your fire with any of these inputs on its database. The computer program will highlight the fire origin either on a contour map or an aerial photo, or both at the same time, in either flat map or 3-D. The next step is to determine the fuel model and potential for crowning (ladder fuels, crown closure, and so on.) by experience, local knowledge, and/or the Terrain Navigator aerial photo.
Next, determine the wind speed and direction from on-site personnel, an air observer, the nearest weather station, or Remote Area Weather Station (RAWS). Several agencies now maintain RAWS stations with the data available via the Internet.
Determine the percent slope using the Terrain Navigator program.
.jpg?x56348)
（2）洛基（Rocky）和桑尼（Sonny）短暂的统一命令在黑海滩大火上。
.jpg?x56348)
(3) A photo ofthe computer screen shows the use of Terrain Navigator Pro for a part of that briefing.
Compute one hour fine fuel moisture using the temperature and relative humidity from the nearest RAWS. If the 10- and 100-hour fuel moistures are needed for your selected fuel model, the nearest fire weather station indices can be estimated to fit the fire site conditions. Live herbaceous and live woody fuel moisture can be determined similarly using fire behavior tables and the nearest fire weather station indices.
With the above inputs, run BEHAVE for estimated rate of spread (ROS) and flame length. These two outputs are critical for the initial and quick evaluation of a fire’s potential. Inputs can also be estimated for the potential of an active crown fire and its ROS, as well as for spotting distance and the probability of ignition for spot fires (See the resources section at the end of this article, particularly RMRS-GTR-145, Stereo Photo Guide for Estimating Canopy Fuel Characteristics in Conifer Stands.)Note: Behave Plus for projecting crown fires is still in a trial mode. All computed ROS must be analyzed based on experience.
You can use this procedure to project a fire for several hours into the future. The Terrain Navigator program provides a method for drawing the projected fire perimeter on the maps and/or aerial photos, marking areas of concern for firefighters. These maps can be printed out or e-mailed in one dimension or in three dimensions. For a detailed description of using the Terrain Navigator program for this purpose, contact Justin Randall atrandallju@yahoo.com, author of Map Tech Terrain Navigator Pro 7.0 Uses and Limitations in Fire Management, University of Montana, Forestry 496, Wildland Fire Science Independent Study, Fall 2006.
You can accomplish the above steps in a relatively short time depending on your experience level and the quantity of on-site data. As quickly as fire crews can relay fuels, weather, and topography data from the fire, you can quickly update the BEHAVE run and refine the Terrain Navigator maps. Canopy height, tree height, and canopy base height from crews on the fire line can further refine the potential for an active crown fire.
The following is an example of an actual time line from the Sugarloaf Initial Attack Fire on 7/24/06.
1430小时：在Stickney Creek排水系统中报告的火。
OFFICE:激活Terrain Navigator Pro并注意一般区域的燃料和地形。记录RAWS的天气。
1448小时：最初的攻击人员报告“很好的专栏”。“在抽签中，火是Sugarloaf Mountain的南/西南。”
1452 hours: Air Observer gives Lat/Long.
OFFICE:Fire is located on map and aerial photo using Terrain Navigator. Calculate slope, note aspect and alignment of drainages relative to wind direction. Request size-up by air observer.
1454 hours: Air pbserver reports fire spread moderate, upper 1/3 of slope in grass and sparse timber. Smoke drift is to the east.
1515小时：现已印刷的地图和空中照片位于火点。
地图和航空摄影可以用3-D打印。
OFFICE:Run BEHAVE using the current Fire Weather Forecast, RAWS data, current fire danger indices, and vegetation estimates.
1544小时：最初的行为是通过初步地形导航器一小时的传播图完成的。
1600 hours：使用地形导航器并表现出来，已完成了一个扩展的四小时扩展图（显示一个小时的增量）。此信息将用于管理管理的初步简报。我们当地的警长也是县消防员，负责撤离。他作为此过程的用户的评论是，知道火在哪里同样重要不是going as it is to know where it is going when dealing with evacuations.
1725 hours: Using information from crews on the fire line and a spot fire weather forecast, BEHAVE was updated and the Terrain Navigator maps refined.
It is important to note that as experience was gained using Terrain Navigator, this time line was significantly reduced.
Extended Attack
将使用两次火灾来说明该过程的使用进行扩展攻击。2006年9月，这场2700英亩的香烟大火和2007年7月的570英亩的小沃尔夫溪大火。
By 1000 hours on September 13, 2006, the Cigarette Rock fire was estimated to be 300 acres and had just crossed Straight Creek.(Figures 1 and 2). The procedure was initiated at this time using the weather data and indices from the benchmark fire weather RAWS approximately four miles due north of the fire and the special red flag warning issued the morning of September. 13. See figures 3 and 4 for results of the procedure. The potential fire perimeter projection was almost identical to the actual final fire perimeter. The actual final size of the fire was 2,700 acres.
Figure 1:Maptech topo view, Cigarette Rock Fire
Figure 2:3D view, Cigarette Rock Fire.
Figure 3:Projected spread of Cigarette Rock fire.
Figure 4:Actual final perimeter of Cigarette Rock Fire.
小沃尔夫溪（Little Wolf Creek）大火发生在2007年7月18日，由于受到威胁的全年房屋的数量，被包括在2007年7月21日由一类事件管理团队（IMT）管理的大火中。但是，在过渡之前，火灾是由当地志愿消防部门和蒙大拿州消防部门管理的。火灾投影立即在第一个警报（地图1）上开始。再次，预计的火灾外围非常接近三天后实际的最终射击周边。最终估计的火灾尺寸为570英亩。投影地图和航拍照片用于介绍扩展攻击开销，以及即将到来的第一型IMT和警长。很明显，使用此过程时，存在安全，战术和疏散计划的好处。
Map 1:Projected fire spread of Little Wolf Creek fire, including final perimeter.
RED— Actual Perimeter on July 18, 2007 – +/- 17 acres
（a）蓝色— A (10:00 a.m. 7/19/07) PROJECTED — +/- 35 acres
(B) GREEN- b（07年7月19日下午12:00）预计 - +/- 75英亩
（c）紫色— C (2:00 p.m.7/19/07) PROJECTED — +/- 90 acres
(D) SKY BLUE— D (4:00 p.m.7/19/07) PROJECTED — +/- 243 acres
(E) PINK- E（6:00 p.m. 07/07）预计 - +/- 340英亩
BLACKdash w/YELLOW亮点（07/22/07上午11:00） - 实际的最终周长 - 570英亩。
Map 2:附近分区的撤离包括75 to100房屋。
大火
据报道，梅里韦特（Meriwether）的大火在2007年7月17日是一场小型闪电大火。由于极端的燃烧条件和难以通行，这场大火增加到43,298英亩。大火由一型IMT管理。保留了作者，以协助团队起火行为分析师作为当地火灾行为分析师的火灾行为职责。Terrain Navigator计划加上Behave Plus，用于投射大火的每日潜在传播。红外航班和汇报线人员的热点位置为预测提供了起点。结果非常准确且可靠，可用于日常简报。
Training and Public Education
The same procedure can be used to illustrate a wildfire’s potential using historical weather and fuel moisture data from a nearby fire weather station. This procedure was used for the city of Helena and in several communities near the capital city. The results were placed into a PowerPoint presentation and used for training local volunteer fire departments and educating residents for the need to provide defensible/survivable space around homes in the wildland-urban interface (WUI). The program prepared for the city of Helena was instrumental in convincing the planning staff and zoning board to propose a WUI zone that would prohibit shake shingle roofs along with requiring screening over vents and so on. This zoning proposal was approved by the city commission on January 7, 2008, and represented a major step forward in WUI fire safety in Lewis & Clark County.
Projected fire with spotting potential moving into Helena, Montana (state capital).
事实证明，这种火灾预测方法在从抑制到培训和教育的众多火灾管理操作中非常有用。随着我们在使用这种方法方面获得更多的经验，其效率和准确性将提高，使其成为一种更有价值的方法。
蒙大拿州北部落基山脉培训中心培训中心的Risa Lange-Navarro对“为什么打扰/”的回答很好。
“火灾行为可能非常复杂，但是如果您能够对火灾行为有很好的整体理解，那么您将能够做出更有效，安全的决定来抑制或管理火灾，并在作业结束时将所有人带回家。”
.jpg?x56348)
E.M.“Sonny“Stiger(left) is a retired fire chief, a fire behavior analyst, and a fuel and fire management consultant
Rocky Infanger(right) is the fire chief of the Wolf Creek/Craig (MT) Fire Service Area.
RESOURCES
The following publications can be used to estimate input to the BEHAVE program and operate Terrain Navigator Pro for fire management purposes.
- INT-GTR-122(APRIL 1982)
Aids to Determining Fuel Models for Estimating Fire Behavior.
22 p.
Hal E. Anderson
- INT-GTR-142(APRIL 1983)
Field Procedures for Verification and Adjustment of Fire Behavior Predictions.
28 p。
Richard C. Rothermel
乔治·Rinehart
- INT-GTR-143(JUNE1983)
How to Predict the Spread and Intensity of Forest and Range Fires.
168页。
Richard C. Rothermel
- RMRS-GTR-145(MARCH 2005)
Stereo Photo Guide for Estimating Canopy Fuel Characteristics in Conifer Stands.
56 p.
Joe H. Scott
Elizabeth D. Reinhardt
- RMRS-GTR-153(JUNE 2005)
Standard Fire Behavior Fuel Models: A Comprehensive Set for Use with Rothermel’s Surface Fire Spread Model.
80 p。
Joe H. Scott
罗伯特·E·伯根（Robert E. Burgan）
- RMRS-RP-29（2001年9月）
Assessing Crown Fire Potential by Linking Models of Surface and Crown Fire Behavior.
66 p.
Joe H. Scott
Elizabeth D. Reinhardt
- INT-GTR-438(JANUARY 1991)
Predicting Behavior and Size of Crown Fires in the Northern Rocky Mountains.
46 p。
Richard C. Rothermel
- 790039181（2006年秋季）
地图技术地形Navigator Pro 7.0消防管理中的用途和局限性。
46 p。
贾斯汀·兰德尔（Justin D. Randall）
