Operational Risk Management: How To Make Good, Defendable Decisions On The Fly

Standard operating procedures (SOPs), rules and regulations, departmental orders, and other policies and training procedures serve as the basis for operational risk management and the decision-making process that occurs within fire departments. These guidelines are established for events which can be identified in advance, for example, having procedures in place that address when an employee is late for work, identify company response assignments, or to identify the steps to take when treating a heart attack victim. Having operational procedures in place simplifies the decision making process, justifies actions taken, weighs the risk and benefits, and creates safe, effective, and efficient operations. But how do we make good defendable decisions on the fly when no established procedure or experiential base exists for a given call type?

为了有效，公司官员必须具有决定性。建立了适当的准则使决策变得更加容易，因为我们可以呼吁熟悉的过程以做出有关高频事件的决策，我们对我们做出响应和定期处理的事情。另一方面，我们通常没有适当的程序来应对低频事件，在这种情况下，由于经验有限，决策可能会变得更加困难。

做决定

正如风险经理戈登·格雷厄姆（Gordon Graham）所说：“想象一下您的大脑是计算机硬盘驱动器。您所做的一切以及在工作和生活中经历的经验都将您的硬盘装载到您的硬盘上。当您参与任何任务或事件时，您的大脑会迅速扫描您的硬盘驱动器，以寻找紧密的匹配。当它在给定情况下找到匹配项或关键要素时，它提供了有关如何处理特定情况的建议。该过程称为识别启动决策（RPDM）。”Gary Klein博士是RPDM的创建者。我们中的许多人自然利用了这一决策过程。我们只是知道由于经验而该怎么办。RPDM允许有经验的个人做出合理正确的决定。RPDM涉及决策的四个步骤：

1. Prototype Match - Have we seen this before?
2. Expectations - Established by your prototype match, what did we do before and what were the results?
3. 评估 - 行动方案是否合理？RPDM寻找解决方案，不一定是最好的解决方案。
4. Implementation - If course of action has a reasonable chance for success, it is implemented. If course of action has no reasonable chance for success, modify the course of action or pick another option.

RPDM在公认的情况下效果很好，但不应用于做出所有决定。实际上，由于此模型易于使用并且运行良好，因此通常将其用作决策的默认机制。

Classic Decision Making (CDM) is another method used for making decisions. The CDM model has been taught for many years and is one of the best ways to make a decision if you have time and information. CDM also involves four steps to decision making:

1. Aim – What do we want to accomplish?
2. Factors – Anything that affects the decision.
3. 课程wa -建立3或更多ys to accomplish the AIM.
4. Plan – Choose the best course of action and establish a plan to implement the course of action.

While the CDM works well, it relies on time and information, so it is not as effective as RPDM in emergency situations where a decision needs to be made quickly and there is no discretionary time available for in-depth analysis.

Risk Management Plan

在缓解工作中，通常必须在很少的时间和信息中做出决定，尤其是在生命受到威胁时。风险和福利必须不断称重。消防局认可了已故菲尼克斯消防局退休局长艾伦·布鲁纳奇尼（Alan V. Brunacini）提出的简单风险管理计划，该计划有助于决策过程。

• Wewill以计算的方式冒险冒险SAVABLElives.

• Wewillrisk our lives a little, in a calculated manner, to protectSAVABLEproperty.

• We will不是risk our lives at all for lives or property already lost.

Most of the time this plan is recognized as it relates to fire emergencies, but I believe it is equally effective in dealing with all emergencies.

Risk/Frequency

Having discussed methods available for making decisions, let’s have a look at the Risk/Frequency Chart to identify where we are most vulnerable to risk. The chart identifies four specific areas of risk and frequency. Low Risk/Low Frequency events are not a big deal to us, because the consequences are not that severe. High Frequency events generally do not cause problems except whencomplacency,fatigue,分心,hubris(excessive pride and self-confidence), and风险稳态(we are invincible) are involved. The area of the chart that leaves us most vulnerable is the top left box, High Risk/Low Frequency. These are situations that have life threatening consequences, happen so infrequently we lack experience in dealing with them, and do not have information on our human hard drives to help guide our decisions.

Notice the dividing line in the High Risk/Low Frequency category. This line indicates a distinction between High Risk/Low Frequency events with Discretionary Time (DT) and those with Non-Discretionary Time (NDT).

DT affords an opportunity to analyze a given situation and to make decisions with time on our side. Take for instance a hazardous materials or bomb incident. With the exception of life safety, there is usually no reason to rush these incidents. Many of the incidents we respond to can be considered DT type incidents. We create many consequences for ourselves when we fail to use time when it is available.

NDT incidents increase our vulnerability by not affording us more time to think things through. These are situations where we must act immediately; take for instance, a structure fire where savable victims are trapped.

Example

不幸的是，主动射击事件变得司空见惯，但对于全国许多消防部门来说，仍然是高风险/低频事件。危险在于，许多部门尚未进行此类事件，因此他们没有建立的体验知识基础，可以帮助他们认识到他们应该知道和做什么，除非他们主动为这种类型的事件进行培训。对于我们许多人来说，积极的射手反应尚未成为第二天性，我认为这是一种祝福和诅咒。

假设说,你喊一个年代chool shooting. Local police are responding and attempting to secure the scene, and chances are Fire/EMS units are entering the area at the same time. The number of shooters, types of weapons, and the location within the school are unknown. Single and rapid-fire gunshots can be heard from time-to-time. You witness students and teachers exiting one wing of the building; some appear to be injured and bloody. Some of the evacuees tell you more of their friends and teachers have been shot, but are alive in the hall about 20’ from the exit door. They state the shooter came down the hall, fired multiple shots then left, but they are not sure where the gunman went next. What are your considerations and decisions? What actions will you take as a result of your considerations? How much time do you have to decide on your actions, and do you have sufficient resources to support you? What are the unknowns (explosives, multiple actors)? Have you trained for this? Have you seen this event before? Do you have an SOP in place to provide initial guidance? These are just some points to ponder and may be a starting point to begin your discussions, planning and preparation for an active shooter event.

Agencies like the Arlington County, Virginia Fire and Police Departments, as well as the Fire Departments of Northern Virginia have been at the forefront of creating nationally recognized standards to respond to active shooter events with Tactical Emergency Casualty Care (TECC) that is supported with ballistic personal protective equipment and rapid treatment medical supplies or “Go-Bags” (prepackaged medical supplies specifically geared toward bleeding control). If we stop the bleeding, we stop the dying. Ongoing and joint exercises hone personnel skills and decision making in order to make members familiar and effective in responding to particular high risk/low frequency events. The addition of a unified command between Fire/EMS and Law Enforcement helps to coordinate efforts and maintains situational awareness and expertise. Joint and agency specific training is frequent and ongoing, as it should be.

Final Thoughts

我认为，风险管理计划可以有效地应用于所有紧急情况下，以帮助做出良好的防御决定，尤其是在不存在明确或确定的SOP的关键情况下。此外，对高风险/低频事件的积极培训需要相对未知，并通过提供基础来使人员更加熟悉。该培训提供了一种实用的经验，可以帮助预测实际事件如何发挥作用。它提供了确定经验教训和加强教训，并完善操作考虑，任务和决策的机会。情境意识提高了，因此更有效。建立SOP进一步有助于可预测和可预防情况的决策过程。

By preparing for high risk/low frequency non-discretionary time events, we can become more effective and efficient at protecting ourselves and those we serve through good defendable decision making.

References:

戈登·格雷厄姆（Gordon Graham），组织和运营风险管理

• www.gordongraham.com,www.firefighterclosecalls.com,www.firefighternearmiss.com,www.lexipol.com, and Gordongraham@earthlink.net

Dr. Gary Klein, “Sources of Power: How People Make Decisions”

尼克·J·萨拉梅（Nick J. Salameh）是消防部门的36年资深人士。他是II的消防/紧急医疗服务队长，​​也是阿灵顿县（VA）消防局的先前培训计划经理，他与之一起服务了31年。他是北弗吉尼亚消防部门培训委员会的前主席。尼克是消防工程杂志的贡献者，188金宝搏是正规吗www.sacthai.comand Stop Believing Start Knowing (SBSK),https://www.facebook.com/StopBelievingStartKnowing/。